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Re: Power Rankings Question

By TheWitchHunter
12/15/2024 10:17 pm
when viewing power rankings, there is a value assigned in () next to each team.
1. What does this number represent?
2. How is it calculated?

EG:
Arizona Cardinals (3.2)
Last edited at 12/15/2024 10:18 pm

Re: Power Rankings Question

By Mcbolt55
12/15/2024 10:26 pm
It’s the point spread used for the +/- on the weekly schedule to determine those odds. Aka home team gets 3 point bias, then those scores modify it from there. That’s how a +7 versus a -7 becomes a 14 point spread, or how an ok team on the road is called even against a losing team at home. How it is calculated based on rosters and performance I don’t think anybody besides jdb knows for certain.
Last edited at 12/15/2024 10:31 pm

Re: Power Rankings Question

By Cjfred68
12/16/2024 9:41 pm
Mcbolt55 wrote:
It’s the point spread used for the +/- on the weekly schedule to determine those odds. Aka home team gets 3 point bias, then those scores modify it from there. That’s how a +7 versus a -7 becomes a 14 point spread, or how an ok team on the road is called even against a losing team at home. How it is calculated based on rosters and performance I don’t think anybody besides jdb knows for certain.


I've been trying to figure out the power rankings for many years until I finally gave up out of frustration and created my own.

The best guess I can give you is it doesn't reflect current week results and probably takes some average of the past 32 games which is the only thing I can think off based on weird results.

For example, a 7-1 team ranked 10th overall beats an 8-0 team ranked 3rd overall and the 7-1 team drops 2 spots while the losing 8-0 team shoots up to #1. And yes, that's a real example among many odd things I've observed in the last 5 years.

McBolt is correct about how the point spread is calculated by using the ranking score with one disclaimer being that only a max of +/- 14 is used in MFN!

Nobody is ever favorite over +14 or over a 14 point dog! That's locked in kinda like a 60 yard fieldgoal is generally the max except in very, very rare occasions.

36 seasons played in the Quick and the Dead league and 60 is the longest fieldgoal.

36 seasons played in the XFL league and 2 kickers have a 61 yarder.

That's a cumulative total of 18,432 games played and just 2 fieldgoals over 60 yards or a 0.01% chance per game.

The USFL is around 40 seasons in and zero over 60 yards.

Last edited at 12/16/2024 9:50 pm

Re: Power Rankings Question

By TheWitchHunter
12/20/2024 8:49 pm
Thx, folks! Footnote: i set my min max fg at 53/56 for the reasons mentioned above.

Re: Power Rankings Question

By Mcbolt55
12/20/2024 9:14 pm
TheWitchHunter wrote:
Thx, folks! Footnote: i set my min max fg at 53/56 for the reasons mentioned above.


Is that the default setting? I can’t remember, but I imagine whatever that set point is has a lot to do with the sim even thinking about attempting the longest kicks…

Re: Power Rankings Question

By Cjfred68
12/20/2024 9:50 pm
Mcbolt55 wrote:
TheWitchHunter wrote:
Thx, folks! Footnote: i set my min max fg at 53/56 for the reasons mentioned above.


Is that the default setting? I can’t remember, but I imagine whatever that set point is has a lot to do with the sim even thinking about attempting the longest kicks…


There are 2 sliders for normal fieldgoal distance and end of half/game max distance and 65 is the max for both. I typically set mine to 55/65 but as I stated above, over 60 is exceedingly rare!

Re: Power Rankings Question

By TheWitchHunter
12/23/2024 10:01 pm
Mcbolt55 wrote:
TheWitchHunter wrote:
Thx, folks! Footnote: i set my min max fg at 53/56 for the reasons mentioned above.


Is that the default setting? I can’t remember, but I imagine whatever that set point is has a lot to do with the sim even thinking about attempting the longest kicks…


Not sure about the default setting, but I do know 53/56 is "lower than."
I've had many amazing kickers since 2018, and i've gone as high as 55/58.

As a footnote: It sure would be awesome to be able to make field goal rules (4th and whatever with less than 1 minute in the half - and use FG rules to be able to increase fg max distance to - say - 61 yards and override the miscellaneous tab settings for FG length).

^ This is an example of a improvement to MFN i would pay a subscription for. ;) More user control is worth more $.

Re: Power Rankings Question

By TheWitchHunter
12/23/2024 10:11 pm
addendum: I set my max FG limit with the objective of 90% or better FG completion,
The numbers mentioned: 53-56 (assuming 90+ kacc and kstr, i also add weight to intelligence for my kickers) is always 90% + success rate.

Oddly, under such parameters, most misses occur from 40-50 yards distance even with the most ideal kicker (97+ kacc and kstr).

58 can still get above 90% completion IF the kicker is 95 kacc and kstr with good intelligence
59 yards is where i start to see errors: fg success drop below 90%.

It seems there is an exponential increase of missing: more so in the 40-50 yard range; with an increasing miss rate for 50+ yard FGs from any max range from 59 yards and above.

I might be wrong about the exponential math, but i'm sure it's close enough for horseshoes and hand grenades.

My kicker: (acquired 2004) https://paydirt.myfootballnow.com/player/12212

It's fine to try a 62 yard fg in the playoffs with less than 20 seconds remaining in the game and not so much when there is 4 minutes remaining in the 1st quarter.

In no way is a kicker in MFN hitting a 66 yarder like:
Here's a look at the longest field goals in NFL history:

66 yards

Justin Tucker, Baltimore Ravens - 2021

65 yards

Brandon Aubrey, Dallas Cowboys - 2024

64 yards

Matt Prater, Denver Broncos - 2013

20-ish players have hit field goals in the NFL at 60 or more yards.

Source: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/40994229/what-longest-field-goals-nfl-history

I dunno how we got on field goals, but it's a convo i'm glad to be having :)
Last edited at 12/23/2024 10:53 pm

Re: Power Rankings Question

By TheWitchHunter
12/23/2024 10:15 pm
I'd rather have a 4th down offensive rule if I'm at my opponent's 41 and less (edit) than 4 yards.
I have not made any O rule since fall 2021.
Last edited at 12/23/2024 10:19 pm